The Open 2015
Jul 14th, 2015
Who to back at The Open
So, we’ve found a slick haired smoothie in the boozer who reckons he might know a thing or two about golf betting…
Introducing The Golf Spiv…
“I’ll turn your 50p’s into fivers”, and “your tenner’s into tons” he said. So, after a few golf beers we thought we’d give him a go. Six weeks on, he’s made us a few quid (156 points to be precise!), and we thought you guys might like in on the action. After lots of chat about “value”, “the jolly”, and “over priced”, he has managed to fund our first few hang overs at the GolfPunk Clubhouse (The Rule Pub Diner in St Andrews). It must be said, after about three weeks we thought he was full of stuff and nonsense but he came good, and said it was usual to have a few weeks without a return given the nature of his selections.
There are a few key stats and trends to consider when staking your hard earned cash on a bloke you met in a pub, but The Spiv puts a pretty decent argument together. Having tipped Brandon Grace before the US Open at Chambers Bay, we’re convinced he’s onto something, even if Grace was undone by an errant tee shot late in the day.
So who’s the Golf Spiv backing then?
Jordan Spieth, Dustin Johnson, Rickie Fowler – none can be ignored
By my maths I make Dustin Johnson the best value of the three favourites. Chambers Bay showed he can play Links courses that favour long hitters, let’s hope he can finish the job off this time…
It’s well documented that St Andrews has struggled to keep up with technological advances in golf clubs and balls over the years, and its biggest defence still remains the weather. Of late the East Coast of Scotland has had a lot of rain, and so the “Old Lady” is as soft as it’s been for sometime. Looking back over the years, the wind has played a big factor in protecting the course from getting smashed by one of the big guns. You only have to look at the likes of Rory shooting 63 in the first round in 2010 without a breath of wind, then the wind got up and he couldn’t break 80 in round two, showing just how important conditions can be. Early indications show a bias towards Thursday early/Friday late starters
Measuring 7,297 yards, length can be an important factor, especially when considering how soft the course is playing this year. Woods destroyed the field here in 2005 when he won by eight when his distance was far superior to anyone else’s. That said, the technology has moved on, and with The Old Course having only two par fives and potentially three driveable par fours, it’s worth exploring par four stats, as well as the ever important scramble and proximity to hole figures too. Hitting 16 greens in regulation here at St Andrews is not unusual, due in large to their vast size, so putting is key. The first five holes present opportunities to get off to a great start, with most players expecting to be two under as a minimum.
Each Way tickles
Victor Dubuisson-80/1- Bet365, 1 point Each Way
Having previously missed the cut in his 2010 Open Championship appearance at St Andrews, the talented Frenchman has come a long way, and has shown a real liking for links golf, most notably shooting 62 in the Alfred Dunhill here in 2012. His appearance in 2010 can be overlooked, and he’s coming into form nicely.
Paul Casey-40/1 Boyelsports, 0.5 point EW
Paul loves GolfPunk so that puts him on any short list automatically. That said, Sir Paul has hit a decent little patch of form of late, narrowly missing out to Bubba in a playoff at The Travellers Championship. He put the defeat (and his thinned bunker shot) instantly to one side after he saw his little boy sucking his thumb greenside just after the event. Perspective. Classy guy, and gets my money
Martin Kaymer–40/1 Betfred, 1point EW
Bubbling away, and not a million miles away in France, the German has a bit of “previous” here at the home of golf, winning the 2010 Alfred Dunhill. Known for his tee shot placement, and great lag putting, in my mind the price is just so wrong for a guy of this talent. That said, he is at completely the wrong side of the draw…
Louis Oosthuizen-1 point EW
Louis loves a bit of links, knows how to win here, and admitted he loves St Andrews, enough said.
Tommy Fleetwood- 80/1 Ladbrokes, 1 point EW
The scouse sensation has had some interesting finishes of late, and after working with a new psychologist he’s showing signs of being able to finish his dinner. Sadly, not so last week at the Scottish. Having grown up on links courses, Tommy has the capability of plotting his way around the course. His patience is the only thing that can beat him this week. He has every shot in the book.
First Round Leader
Thomas Bjorn 150/1 ew (Bet Victor) out first on Thursday, could easily get a charge on the field!!, 0.5 point ew
Paul Lawrie- 300/1 BetFred, 0.5 point EW
Alexander Levy- 150/1 Ladbrokes, 0.25 EW
Luke Donald- 12/1 Paddy Power – 1.5 point
“Buy a House” outsider
David Howell- 150/1 ew (various), 0.5 point ew
Thomas Bjorn- 250/1 BetFred- 0.5 point ew
A point represents your stake, i.e 1 point = £1, unlike your club choice down a narrow par four, please be responsible
This weeks investment – 15 points.